IMF sees AI correction and cyber threats as near-term shock risks

The IMF used its annual meeting in Bangkok to flag two near-term shock risks for global markets.

The Global Financial Stability Report says “plausible near-term catalysts” could trigger “a sharp tightening of financial conditions and market turmoil.”

AI correction risk

The report says the recent AI boom and related rush to build semiconductors and data centres gave global growth a boost.

But the IMF warns there is “growing evidence” that AI capabilities can be delivered at lower investment levels, or that economic gains may not be as large as expected. “Weaker or less durable AI investments and profitability could be a shock that triggers a market correction,” the report says.

Cyber threats

Severe cyber incidents could undermine market confidence and disrupt critical financial market infrastructure and operations, the IMF says.

Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, told reporters the risks are “known and very much unknown.” He said policy priority should be to strengthen resilience before new shocks hit.

Caio Ferreira, deputy division chief at the same department, said cyber threats are more menacing in emerging markets that have not allocated enough resources for prevention.

The report also notes frontier AI models could be used to stage attacks, but they also have a role in cyber defence.

The takeaway: The IMF is telling markets that AI hype and cyber risk are near-term shock candidates, not distant hypotheticals.